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Extreme Weather Forecasting
Extreme Weather Forecasting reviews current knowledge about extreme weather events, including key elements and less well-known variables to accurately forecast them.The book covers multiple temporal scales as well as components of current weather forecasting systems.Sections cover case studies on successful forecasting as well as the impacts of extreme weather predictability, presenting a comprehensive and model agnostic review of best practices for atmospheric scientists and others who utilize extreme weather forecasts.
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Instant Weather Forecasting
Instant Weather Forecasting
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Economic Forecasting
Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes.This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns.Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts.Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts.The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. * Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods* Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective* Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts* Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations* Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility* Features numerous empirical examples* Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation* Essential for practitioners and students alike
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Demand Forecasting Best Practices
Master the demand forecasting skills you need to decide what resources to acquire, products to produce, and where and how to distribute them.For demand planners, S&OP managers, supply chain leaders, and data scientists.Demand Forecasting Best Practices is a unique step-by-step guide, demonstrating forecasting tools, metrics, and models alongside stakeholder management techniques that work in a live business environment. You will learn how to: Lead a demand planning team to improve forecasting quality while reducing workloadProperly define the objectives, granularity, and horizon of your demand planning processUse smart, value-weighted KPIs to track accuracy and biasSpot areas of your process where there is room for improvementHelp planners and stakeholders (sales, marketing, finances) add value to your processIdentify what kind of data you should be collecting, and howUtilise different types of statistical and machine learning models Follow author Nicolas Vandeput's original five-step framework for demand planning excellence and learn how to tailor it to your own company's needs.You will learn how to optimise demand planning for a more effective supply chain and will soon be delivering accurate predictions that drive major business value. About the technology Demand forecasting is vital for the success of any product supply chain.It allows companies to make better decisions about what resources to acquire, what products to produce, and where and how to distribute them.As an effective demand forecaster, you can help your organisation avoid overproduction, reduce waste, and optimise inventory levels for a real competitive advantage.
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Forecasting : An Essential Introduction
Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F.A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops.In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting.They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting.This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
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Flood Forecasting : A Global Perspective
Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective, Second Edition covers hydrologic forecasting systems on both a national and regional scale.This updated edition includes a breakdown by county contribution and solutions to common issues with a wide range of approaches to address the difficulties inherent in the development, implementation and operational success of national-scale flood forecasting systems.Special attention is given to recent advances in machine learning techniques for flood forecasting.Overall, the information will lead to improvements of existing systems and provide a valuable reference on the intricacies of forecast systems in different parts of the world.
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Fashion Trends : Analysis and Forecasting
In a fast-moving global industry, how can anyone know what the next trend will be?Fashion Trends: Analysis and Forecasting offers a clear pathway into the theory and practice of forecasting fashion, using professional case studies to demonstrate each technique and concept.This revised edition includes an updated model of the fashion trend analysis and forecasting process and expanded coverage of social media, digital influencers, sustainability and social responsibility.There are also first-hand visual materials relating to forecasts from leading firms. With the rise of individualism and concern for the sustainable world, the authors also walk you through the ‘end of fashion’ and what comes next, including: recycled and upcycled fashion, garment rental, subscription services, the circular economy, transparency and traceability, and the role of forecasting in encouraging sustainable lifestyles. Key topics– The characteristics of an innovation– The influence of consumer groups– Long- and short-term fashion forecasting– Sociocultural factors and their influence on trends– Fashion professionals’ roles in creating and supporting trends– Consumer and industry trends accelerating product innovation and diffusion– Changing trend forecasting formats– The influence of trend forecasting on business decisions
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Advances in Business and Management Forecasting
'Advances in Business and Management Forecasting' is a blind refereed serial publication published on an annual basis.The objective of this research annual is to present state-of-the-art studies in the application of forecasting methodologies to such areas as sales, marketing and strategic decision making.
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